Un análisis de cointegración entre patentes y crecimiento económico en México, 1980-2008

This paper examines the long-run relationship between economic activity in Mexico, measured by real GDP, and the number of patents granted to Mexican holders by the United States Patents and Trademark Office (USPTO) during the period 1980-2008. To do this, we carry out an econometric analysis by means of whicha cointegrating relationship between such variables was found, in spite of the detected presence of structural breaks in the series. Subsequently, we develop a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) where it is observed that the dynamics of patents and GDP are adjusted to long-run equilibrium. Empirical evidence suggests that the marginal change in the patents affects the GDP growth rate but this does not have a significant effect on the number of patents change, that is, the number of patents is an exogenous variable. Finally, the analysis of the impulse-response functions shows that shocks in the patents have length negative effects on real GDP, so as the effects of the real GDP shocks on the patents do.