TY - JOUR
T1 - Risk assessment and uncertainty of the shrimp trawl fishery in the Gulf of California considering environmental variability
AU - Almendarez-Hernández, Luis César
AU - Ponce-Díaz, Germán
AU - Lluch-Belda, Daniel
AU - del Monte-Luna, Pablo
AU - Saldívar-Lucio, Romeo
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2015, Escuela de Ciencias del Mar. All rights reserved.
PY - 2015/9/1
Y1 - 2015/9/1
N2 - The shrimp fishery off the Mexican Pacific coast is the country's most important fishery from the economic standpoint. However, it faces serious problems, including the fleet’s overcapitalization and age, in addition to the environmental variability that affects the size of catches. Thus, this activity depends on a variety of factors that add uncertainty to the profitability of fishing vessels. This study aims to estimate the probability of success and economic risk of "type vessels" under two different environmental variability scenarios in the Gulf of California. The results from the economic simulation pointed to the vessel type used in Guaymas (Sonora) as the most efficient one under a neutral climate change scenario, showing a homogeneous behaviour in physical characteristics and mode of operation. By contrast, under a scenario of a monotonic rise in sea surface temperature, the shrimp fishery faces a greater risk of incurring economic losses. The simulated climate behaviour scenarios revealed that the activity involves a moderate economic profitability under the neutral scenario; however, under the warming scenario, profitability may be low or even nil due to the risks and uncertainty resulting from the influence of environmental phenomena.
AB - The shrimp fishery off the Mexican Pacific coast is the country's most important fishery from the economic standpoint. However, it faces serious problems, including the fleet’s overcapitalization and age, in addition to the environmental variability that affects the size of catches. Thus, this activity depends on a variety of factors that add uncertainty to the profitability of fishing vessels. This study aims to estimate the probability of success and economic risk of "type vessels" under two different environmental variability scenarios in the Gulf of California. The results from the economic simulation pointed to the vessel type used in Guaymas (Sonora) as the most efficient one under a neutral climate change scenario, showing a homogeneous behaviour in physical characteristics and mode of operation. By contrast, under a scenario of a monotonic rise in sea surface temperature, the shrimp fishery faces a greater risk of incurring economic losses. The simulated climate behaviour scenarios revealed that the activity involves a moderate economic profitability under the neutral scenario; however, under the warming scenario, profitability may be low or even nil due to the risks and uncertainty resulting from the influence of environmental phenomena.
KW - Gulf of California
KW - México
KW - Risk
KW - Sensitivity analysis
KW - Shrimp
KW - Uncertainty
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84942930149&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.3856/vol43-issue4-fulltext-4
DO - 10.3856/vol43-issue4-fulltext-4
M3 - Artículo
SN - 0718-560X
VL - 43
SP - 651
EP - 661
JO - Latin American Journal of Aquatic Research
JF - Latin American Journal of Aquatic Research
IS - 4
ER -