Risk assessment and uncertainty of the shrimp trawl fishery in the Gulf of California considering environmental variability

Translated title of the contribution: Risk assessment and uncertainty of the shrimp trawl fishery in the Gulf of California considering environmental variability

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

6 Scopus citations

Abstract

The shrimp fishery off the Mexican Pacific coast is the country's most important fishery from the economic standpoint. However, it faces serious problems, including the fleet’s overcapitalization and age, in addition to the environmental variability that affects the size of catches. Thus, this activity depends on a variety of factors that add uncertainty to the profitability of fishing vessels. This study aims to estimate the probability of success and economic risk of "type vessels" under two different environmental variability scenarios in the Gulf of California. The results from the economic simulation pointed to the vessel type used in Guaymas (Sonora) as the most efficient one under a neutral climate change scenario, showing a homogeneous behaviour in physical characteristics and mode of operation. By contrast, under a scenario of a monotonic rise in sea surface temperature, the shrimp fishery faces a greater risk of incurring economic losses. The simulated climate behaviour scenarios revealed that the activity involves a moderate economic profitability under the neutral scenario; however, under the warming scenario, profitability may be low or even nil due to the risks and uncertainty resulting from the influence of environmental phenomena.

Translated title of the contributionRisk assessment and uncertainty of the shrimp trawl fishery in the Gulf of California considering environmental variability
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)651-661
Number of pages11
JournalLatin American Journal of Aquatic Research
Volume43
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - 1 Sep 2015
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Gulf of California
  • México
  • Risk
  • Sensitivity analysis
  • Shrimp
  • Uncertainty

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'Risk assessment and uncertainty of the shrimp trawl fishery in the Gulf of California considering environmental variability'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this