Dinámica del sistema afianzador de México: Una aplicación de diagramas de fase

Since the application of Solvency II in Mexico, it has been implanted significant changes in regulations for insurers and sureties, which implied an increase in costs and expenses, particularly for the surety sector, since it represents a more significant regulatory burden in regard to the previous Law. This new regulation has a direct impact on insurance premium and its profits. In that sense, the aim of this paper is to analyze the dynamics between total insurance premiums and net income reported of the surety sector in Mexico; this allow to determine whether the collection of insurance premiums is enough to increase net incomes. Phase diagrams are used to recognize the temporal dynamics between variables and know their trajectories in relation to the Steady State. Based on the proposed methodology, it is noted that surety companies present globally unstable behaviors. Likewise, it is verified cases where increased risk aversion of the sureties (represented by the premiums) do not always reflect higher earnings.