Demographic history of Heermann's Gull (Larus heermanni) from late Quaternary to present: Effects of past climate change in the Gulf of California

Climate change during the late Quaternary period (LQP), in both temperate and tropical zones, has been a major driver in the shaping of species distributions and abundances. Our understanding of the various effects of climate change on population dynamics of marine species in temperate zones (such as the Gulf of California) is growing. However, studies on the demographic history of seabirds are rare and there is no description of how regional climate change has affected high-trophic-level marine species such as Heermann's Gull (Larus heermanni; Charadriiformes: Laridae). We investigated whether the demographic history of Heermann's Gull reflects population change consistent with past changes in climate in the Gulf of California during the LQP. We also explored whether those past changes affected the demographic history of codistributed marine organisms in a similar way as found for Heermann's Gulls. To test our hypotheses, we sequenced a fragment of the mitochondrial DNA cytochrome b gene (1,033 base pairs) and performed tests to investigate whether demographic change occurred within the LQP. The results of the 3 approaches used were consistent with a historical demographic expansion during the LQP. All analyses (Fu's FS test, Tajima's D neutrality test, mismatch distribution analysis MDA and associated demographic parameters, and Bayesian skyline plots BSP) were consistent with a model of population expansion in Heermann's Gulls. The MDA estimated the expansion event at ∼48,000 yr before present (yr BP; 95% confidence interval: 34,000-72,000), whereas the BSP showed that population growth began ∼100,000 yr BP and lasted until ∼45,000 yr BP. We discuss possible associations between the demographic expansion of this seabird species and large-scale ecological shifts or demographic expansions of other marine species.