TY - JOUR
T1 - The effect of parameters and irradiance estimation techniques on PV potential quantification
T2 - The case of Mexico
AU - Cervantes-Ortiz, Carlos A.
AU - Cervantes, Ilse
AU - Cervantes-Camacho, Rosa E.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 Elsevier Ltd
PY - 2021/6
Y1 - 2021/6
N2 - The impact of some irradiance estimation techniques and model parameters in the assessment of solar potential has not yet been clarified, therefore, the case of Mexico is used in this work is to reduce such a gap. Firstly, a universe of 1629 weather stations and 108 models were used to study the effect of model-based and interpolation techniques on the estimation of the resource potential. Secondly, a centralized and two decentralized geographic potential scenarios were analyzed. Thirdly, the effect of parameters related to PV solar harvesting and production costs was evaluated. Our results revealed dramatic differences in the resource potential when heuristics models were used; differences up to 10% were found for the same location; in contrast, the evaluated interpolation techniques provided very close results with sensibility indexes (SI) below of 2.11%. Differences up to 15% were found in the average daily irradiance when the available area for PV installation is considered, which revealed the importance of the determination of suitable areas for harvesting. Changes up to %27 in the technical potential were found for different c Si-Poly modules. The parameters affecting most significantly the cost were the annuity factor (SI = 75.89%), the balance of the system (SI = 56.95%) and the PV module investment cost (39.28%). Our results provide reasonable results when compared with actual prices and provide evidence of the role of government policies to lower the costs.
AB - The impact of some irradiance estimation techniques and model parameters in the assessment of solar potential has not yet been clarified, therefore, the case of Mexico is used in this work is to reduce such a gap. Firstly, a universe of 1629 weather stations and 108 models were used to study the effect of model-based and interpolation techniques on the estimation of the resource potential. Secondly, a centralized and two decentralized geographic potential scenarios were analyzed. Thirdly, the effect of parameters related to PV solar harvesting and production costs was evaluated. Our results revealed dramatic differences in the resource potential when heuristics models were used; differences up to 10% were found for the same location; in contrast, the evaluated interpolation techniques provided very close results with sensibility indexes (SI) below of 2.11%. Differences up to 15% were found in the average daily irradiance when the available area for PV installation is considered, which revealed the importance of the determination of suitable areas for harvesting. Changes up to %27 in the technical potential were found for different c Si-Poly modules. The parameters affecting most significantly the cost were the annuity factor (SI = 75.89%), the balance of the system (SI = 56.95%) and the PV module investment cost (39.28%). Our results provide reasonable results when compared with actual prices and provide evidence of the role of government policies to lower the costs.
KW - Energy potential assessment
KW - Mexico solar potential
KW - Photovoltaic energy
KW - Production costs
KW - Sensibility analysis
KW - Solar energy production
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85103413495&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.seta.2021.101131
DO - 10.1016/j.seta.2021.101131
M3 - Artículo
AN - SCOPUS:85103413495
SN - 2213-1388
VL - 45
JO - Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments
JF - Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments
M1 - 101131
ER -
