Prospección de matricula mediante la aplicación del modelo de dinámica de sistemas en una institución de educación superior

J. Michel Legal Hernández; Abel Muñoz de Luna; Pablo E. Escamilla Garcia; Francisco J. Aceves Hernández

doi:10.18687/LACCEI2020.1.1.74

Prospección de matricula mediante la aplicación del modelo de dinámica de sistemas en una institución de educación superior

Translated title of the contribution: Student enrollment prospecting by applying a system dynamics model in higher education institution

J. Michel Legal Hernández, Abel Muñoz de Luna, Pablo E. Escamilla Garcia, Francisco J. Aceves Hernández

Centro de Estudios Científicos y Tecnológicos (CECyT 13) “Ricardo Flores Magón”

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

Abstract

This paper highlights the results obtained by designing a prediction model aimed at estimating the enrolment of students per subject in an institution of higher education from Mexico. To perform the estimation, the system dynamics technique was applied using software VenSim, version 7.2a. The model evaluated the period from August to December 2018 to forecast three subjects: Linear Algebra (AL), Applied Linear Programming (PLA) and Networks and Simulation (RYS). The model included the following variables: number of classrooms and teachers available; number of students who failed and passed in ordinary and extraordinary term; rate of student desertion. The main results showed a prediction accuracy percentage of 97% for AL, 89% for PLA and 97% for RYS. The prognostic error represented 3.4 groups in contrast to the prediction certainty of 72.3 groups. This research provides a model to forecast reliable data for decision making in order to optimize resources.

Translated title of the contribution	Student enrollment prospecting by applying a system dynamics model in higher education institution
Original language	Spanish
Title of host publication	18th LACCEI International Multi-Conference for Engineering, Education Caribbean Conference for Engineering and Technology
Subtitle of host publication	"Engineering, Integration, and Alliances for a Sustainable Development" "Hemispheric Cooperation for Competitiveness and Prosperity on a Knowledge-Based Economy", LACCEI 2020
Publisher	Latin American and Caribbean Consortium of Engineering Institutions
ISBN (Electronic)	9789585207141
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.18687/LACCEI2020.1.1.74
State	Published - 2020
Event	18th LACCEI International Multi-Conference for Engineering, Education Caribbean Conference for Engineering and Technology: "Engineering, Integration, and Alliances for a Sustainable Development" "Hemispheric Cooperation for Competitiveness and Prosperity on a Knowledge-Based Economy", LACCEI 2020 - Virtual, Online Duration: 27 Jul 2020 → 31 Jul 2020

Publication series

Name	Proceedings of the LACCEI international Multi-conference for Engineering, Education and Technology
ISSN (Electronic)	2414-6390

Conference

Conference	18th LACCEI International Multi-Conference for Engineering, Education Caribbean Conference for Engineering and Technology: "Engineering, Integration, and Alliances for a Sustainable Development" "Hemispheric Cooperation for Competitiveness and Prosperity on a Knowledge-Based Economy", LACCEI 2020
City	Virtual, Online
Period	27/07/20 → 31/07/20

Access to Document

10.18687/LACCEI2020.1.1.74

Cite this

Michel Legal Hernández, J., de Luna, A. M., Escamilla Garcia, P. E., & Aceves Hernández, F. J. (2020). Prospección de matricula mediante la aplicación del modelo de dinámica de sistemas en una institución de educación superior. In 18th LACCEI International Multi-Conference for Engineering, Education Caribbean Conference for Engineering and Technology: "Engineering, Integration, and Alliances for a Sustainable Development" "Hemispheric Cooperation for Competitiveness and Prosperity on a Knowledge-Based Economy", LACCEI 2020 (Proceedings of the LACCEI international Multi-conference for Engineering, Education and Technology). Latin American and Caribbean Consortium of Engineering Institutions. https://doi.org/10.18687/LACCEI2020.1.1.74

Michel Legal Hernández, J. ; de Luna, Abel Muñoz ; Escamilla Garcia, Pablo E. et al. / Prospección de matricula mediante la aplicación del modelo de dinámica de sistemas en una institución de educación superior. 18th LACCEI International Multi-Conference for Engineering, Education Caribbean Conference for Engineering and Technology: "Engineering, Integration, and Alliances for a Sustainable Development" "Hemispheric Cooperation for Competitiveness and Prosperity on a Knowledge-Based Economy", LACCEI 2020. Latin American and Caribbean Consortium of Engineering Institutions, 2020. (Proceedings of the LACCEI international Multi-conference for Engineering, Education and Technology).

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title = "Prospecci{\'o}n de matricula mediante la aplicaci{\'o}n del modelo de din{\'a}mica de sistemas en una instituci{\'o}n de educaci{\'o}n superior",

abstract = "This paper highlights the results obtained by designing a prediction model aimed at estimating the enrolment of students per subject in an institution of higher education from Mexico. To perform the estimation, the system dynamics technique was applied using software VenSim, version 7.2a. The model evaluated the period from August to December 2018 to forecast three subjects: Linear Algebra (AL), Applied Linear Programming (PLA) and Networks and Simulation (RYS). The model included the following variables: number of classrooms and teachers available; number of students who failed and passed in ordinary and extraordinary term; rate of student desertion. The main results showed a prediction accuracy percentage of 97% for AL, 89% for PLA and 97% for RYS. The prognostic error represented 3.4 groups in contrast to the prediction certainty of 72.3 groups. This research provides a model to forecast reliable data for decision making in order to optimize resources.",

keywords = "Enrollment, Prediction, Probability, System Dynamic",

author = "{Michel Legal Hern{\'a}ndez}, J. and {de Luna}, {Abel Mu{\~n}oz} and {Escamilla Garcia}, {Pablo E.} and {Aceves Hern{\'a}ndez}, {Francisco J.}",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2020 Latin American and Caribbean Consortium of Engineering Institutions. All rights reserved.; 18th LACCEI International Multi-Conference for Engineering, Education Caribbean Conference for Engineering and Technology: {"}Engineering, Integration, and Alliances for a Sustainable Development{"} {"}Hemispheric Cooperation for Competitiveness and Prosperity on a Knowledge-Based Economy{"}, LACCEI 2020 ; Conference date: 27-07-2020 Through 31-07-2020",

year = "2020",

doi = "10.18687/LACCEI2020.1.1.74",

language = "Espa{\~n}ol",

series = "Proceedings of the LACCEI international Multi-conference for Engineering, Education and Technology",

publisher = "Latin American and Caribbean Consortium of Engineering Institutions",

booktitle = "18th LACCEI International Multi-Conference for Engineering, Education Caribbean Conference for Engineering and Technology",

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Michel Legal Hernández, J, de Luna, AM, Escamilla Garcia, PE & Aceves Hernández, FJ 2020, Prospección de matricula mediante la aplicación del modelo de dinámica de sistemas en una institución de educación superior. in 18th LACCEI International Multi-Conference for Engineering, Education Caribbean Conference for Engineering and Technology: "Engineering, Integration, and Alliances for a Sustainable Development" "Hemispheric Cooperation for Competitiveness and Prosperity on a Knowledge-Based Economy", LACCEI 2020. Proceedings of the LACCEI international Multi-conference for Engineering, Education and Technology, Latin American and Caribbean Consortium of Engineering Institutions, 18th LACCEI International Multi-Conference for Engineering, Education Caribbean Conference for Engineering and Technology: "Engineering, Integration, and Alliances for a Sustainable Development" "Hemispheric Cooperation for Competitiveness and Prosperity on a Knowledge-Based Economy", LACCEI 2020, Virtual, Online, 27/07/20. https://doi.org/10.18687/LACCEI2020.1.1.74

Prospección de matricula mediante la aplicación del modelo de dinámica de sistemas en una institución de educación superior. / Michel Legal Hernández, J.; de Luna, Abel Muñoz; Escamilla Garcia, Pablo E. et al.
18th LACCEI International Multi-Conference for Engineering, Education Caribbean Conference for Engineering and Technology: "Engineering, Integration, and Alliances for a Sustainable Development" "Hemispheric Cooperation for Competitiveness and Prosperity on a Knowledge-Based Economy", LACCEI 2020. Latin American and Caribbean Consortium of Engineering Institutions, 2020. (Proceedings of the LACCEI international Multi-conference for Engineering, Education and Technology).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

TY - GEN

T1 - Prospección de matricula mediante la aplicación del modelo de dinámica de sistemas en una institución de educación superior

AU - Michel Legal Hernández, J.

AU - de Luna, Abel Muñoz

AU - Escamilla Garcia, Pablo E.

AU - Aceves Hernández, Francisco J.

PY - 2020

Y1 - 2020

N2 - This paper highlights the results obtained by designing a prediction model aimed at estimating the enrolment of students per subject in an institution of higher education from Mexico. To perform the estimation, the system dynamics technique was applied using software VenSim, version 7.2a. The model evaluated the period from August to December 2018 to forecast three subjects: Linear Algebra (AL), Applied Linear Programming (PLA) and Networks and Simulation (RYS). The model included the following variables: number of classrooms and teachers available; number of students who failed and passed in ordinary and extraordinary term; rate of student desertion. The main results showed a prediction accuracy percentage of 97% for AL, 89% for PLA and 97% for RYS. The prognostic error represented 3.4 groups in contrast to the prediction certainty of 72.3 groups. This research provides a model to forecast reliable data for decision making in order to optimize resources.

AB - This paper highlights the results obtained by designing a prediction model aimed at estimating the enrolment of students per subject in an institution of higher education from Mexico. To perform the estimation, the system dynamics technique was applied using software VenSim, version 7.2a. The model evaluated the period from August to December 2018 to forecast three subjects: Linear Algebra (AL), Applied Linear Programming (PLA) and Networks and Simulation (RYS). The model included the following variables: number of classrooms and teachers available; number of students who failed and passed in ordinary and extraordinary term; rate of student desertion. The main results showed a prediction accuracy percentage of 97% for AL, 89% for PLA and 97% for RYS. The prognostic error represented 3.4 groups in contrast to the prediction certainty of 72.3 groups. This research provides a model to forecast reliable data for decision making in order to optimize resources.

KW - Enrollment

KW - Prediction

KW - Probability

KW - System Dynamic

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U2 - 10.18687/LACCEI2020.1.1.74

DO - 10.18687/LACCEI2020.1.1.74

M3 - Contribución a la conferencia

AN - SCOPUS:85096794917

T3 - Proceedings of the LACCEI international Multi-conference for Engineering, Education and Technology

BT - 18th LACCEI International Multi-Conference for Engineering, Education Caribbean Conference for Engineering and Technology

PB - Latin American and Caribbean Consortium of Engineering Institutions

T2 - 18th LACCEI International Multi-Conference for Engineering, Education Caribbean Conference for Engineering and Technology: "Engineering, Integration, and Alliances for a Sustainable Development" "Hemispheric Cooperation for Competitiveness and Prosperity on a Knowledge-Based Economy", LACCEI 2020

Y2 - 27 July 2020 through 31 July 2020

ER -

Michel Legal Hernández J, de Luna AM, Escamilla Garcia PE, Aceves Hernández FJ. Prospección de matricula mediante la aplicación del modelo de dinámica de sistemas en una institución de educación superior. In 18th LACCEI International Multi-Conference for Engineering, Education Caribbean Conference for Engineering and Technology: "Engineering, Integration, and Alliances for a Sustainable Development" "Hemispheric Cooperation for Competitiveness and Prosperity on a Knowledge-Based Economy", LACCEI 2020. Latin American and Caribbean Consortium of Engineering Institutions. 2020. (Proceedings of the LACCEI international Multi-conference for Engineering, Education and Technology). doi: 10.18687/LACCEI2020.1.1.74

Prospección de matricula mediante la aplicación del modelo de dinámica de sistemas en una institución de educación superior

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