Nowcasting avalanches as earthquakes and the predictability of strong avalanches in the olami-feder-christensen model

Jennifer Perez-Oregon; Fernando Angulo-Brown; Nicholas Vassiliou Sarlis

doi:10.3390/e22111228

Nowcasting avalanches as earthquakes and the predictability of strong avalanches in the olami-feder-christensen model

Jennifer Perez-Oregon, Fernando Angulo-Brown, Nicholas Vassiliou Sarlis

Escuela Superior de Física y Matemáticas (ESFM)

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

19 Scopus citations

Abstract

Nowcasting earthquakes, suggested recently as a method to estimate the state of a fault and hence the seismic risk, is based on the concept of natural time. Here, we generalize nowcasting to a prediction method the merits of which are evaluated by means of the receiver operating characteristics. This new prediction method is applied to a simple (toy) model for the waiting (natural) time of the stronger earthquakes, real seismicity, and the Olami-Feder-Christensen earthquake model with interesting results revealing acceptable to excellent or even outstanding performance.

Translated title of the contribution	Predicción inmediata de avalanchas como terremotos y la previsibilidad de fuertes avalanchas en el modelo olami-feder-christensen
Original language	English
Article number	1228
Pages (from-to)	1-21
Number of pages	21
Journal	Entropy
Volume	22
Issue number	11
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.3390/e22111228
State	Published - Nov 2020

Keywords

Avalanches
Earthquakes
Natural time analysis
Nowcasting earthquakes
Olami-Feder-Christensen model

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title = "Nowcasting avalanches as earthquakes and the predictability of strong avalanches in the olami-feder-christensen model",

abstract = "Nowcasting earthquakes, suggested recently as a method to estimate the state of a fault and hence the seismic risk, is based on the concept of natural time. Here, we generalize nowcasting to a prediction method the merits of which are evaluated by means of the receiver operating characteristics. This new prediction method is applied to a simple (toy) model for the waiting (natural) time of the stronger earthquakes, real seismicity, and the Olami-Feder-Christensen earthquake model with interesting results revealing acceptable to excellent or even outstanding performance.",

keywords = "Avalanches, Earthquakes, Natural time analysis, Nowcasting earthquakes, Olami-Feder-Christensen model",

author = "Jennifer Perez-Oregon and Fernando Angulo-Brown and Sarlis, {Nicholas Vassiliou}",

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AU - Perez-Oregon, Jennifer

AU - Angulo-Brown, Fernando

AU - Sarlis, Nicholas Vassiliou

PY - 2020/11

Y1 - 2020/11

N2 - Nowcasting earthquakes, suggested recently as a method to estimate the state of a fault and hence the seismic risk, is based on the concept of natural time. Here, we generalize nowcasting to a prediction method the merits of which are evaluated by means of the receiver operating characteristics. This new prediction method is applied to a simple (toy) model for the waiting (natural) time of the stronger earthquakes, real seismicity, and the Olami-Feder-Christensen earthquake model with interesting results revealing acceptable to excellent or even outstanding performance.

AB - Nowcasting earthquakes, suggested recently as a method to estimate the state of a fault and hence the seismic risk, is based on the concept of natural time. Here, we generalize nowcasting to a prediction method the merits of which are evaluated by means of the receiver operating characteristics. This new prediction method is applied to a simple (toy) model for the waiting (natural) time of the stronger earthquakes, real seismicity, and the Olami-Feder-Christensen earthquake model with interesting results revealing acceptable to excellent or even outstanding performance.

KW - Avalanches

KW - Earthquakes

KW - Natural time analysis

KW - Nowcasting earthquakes

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Nowcasting avalanches as earthquakes and the predictability of strong avalanches in the olami-feder-christensen model

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Keywords

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