Método de la cadena de markov-remuestreo-punto de rompimiento estructural del crecimiento económico

We propose a structural breakpoint resampling method that allows us to draw reliable conclusions from Markov chain analysis of GDP growth series; and apply it to Mexico and the U.S. According to our findings, the "structural" probability of a real GDP contraction in the U.S. in 2008 is only 3 %, in spite of the Sub-prime mortgage crisis; and Mexico is in a middle-income trap.