Learning from Tabasco's floods by applying MORT

Natural disasters are increasing alarmingly worldwide in recent years. They have killed millions of people, and adversely affected the life of at least one billion people. Given this, natural disasters present a great challenge to society today concerning how they are to be mitigated so as to produce an acceptable risk is a question which has come to the fore in dramatic ways recently. In 2007, the state of Tabasco, Mexico, was flooded and it is believed that al least one million people were left homeless. The paper addresses the following question: what can be learnt from flood disasters? The paper presents some preliminary results of the analysis of the Tabasco's flooding by applying the Management Oversight Risk Tree (MORT). The MORT technique may be regarded as a structured checklist in the form of a complex 'fault-tree' model that is intended to ensure that all aspects of an organization's management are looked into when assessing the possible causes of an incident. One of the key conclusions of the present analysis is that the approach to decision making in relation 'flood management' at the time of the disaster has not been based explicitly on 'flood risk assessment'. It is hoped that by conducting such analysis lessons can be learnt so that the impact of natural disasters such as the Tabasco's flooding can be mitigated in the future.