Influence of aging steel on pipeline burst pressure prediction and its impact on failure probability estimation

N. E. González-Arévalo; J. C. Velázquez; M. Díaz-Cruz; A. Cervantes-Tobón; G. Terán; E. Hernández-Sanchez; S. Capula-Colindres

doi:10.1016/j.engfailanal.2020.104950

Influence of aging steel on pipeline burst pressure prediction and its impact on failure probability estimation

N. E. González-Arévalo, J. C. Velázquez, M. Díaz-Cruz, A. Cervantes-Tobón, G. Terán, E. Hernández-Sanchez, S. Capula-Colindres

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

28 Scopus citations

Abstract

Pipelines are the most profitable mode of transportation for hydrocarbons. Typically, oil and gas pipelines are made of low carbon steel, whose mechanical properties change due to aging. The changes in mechanical properties can be estimated using an artificial aging process. The mechanical properties studied in this paper (yield strength, ultimate tensile strength, and hardness), have random behavior that can be represented by a generalized extreme value distribution, showing considerable changes in variance and skewness at different aging times. Taking advantage of this feature and considering these changes in the mechanical properties can significantly affect the accuracy of calculated pipeline probability of failure estimation.

Original language	English
Article number	104950
Journal	Engineering Failure Analysis
Volume	120
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engfailanal.2020.104950
State	Published - Feb 2021

Keywords

Artificial aging
Burst pressure models
Failure pressure
Pipeline steel
Probability of failure

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10.1016/j.engfailanal.2020.104950

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title = "Influence of aging steel on pipeline burst pressure prediction and its impact on failure probability estimation",

abstract = "Pipelines are the most profitable mode of transportation for hydrocarbons. Typically, oil and gas pipelines are made of low carbon steel, whose mechanical properties change due to aging. The changes in mechanical properties can be estimated using an artificial aging process. The mechanical properties studied in this paper (yield strength, ultimate tensile strength, and hardness), have random behavior that can be represented by a generalized extreme value distribution, showing considerable changes in variance and skewness at different aging times. Taking advantage of this feature and considering these changes in the mechanical properties can significantly affect the accuracy of calculated pipeline probability of failure estimation.",

keywords = "Artificial aging, Burst pressure models, Failure pressure, Pipeline steel, Probability of failure",

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AU - González-Arévalo, N. E.

AU - Velázquez, J. C.

AU - Díaz-Cruz, M.

AU - Cervantes-Tobón, A.

AU - Terán, G.

AU - Hernández-Sanchez, E.

AU - Capula-Colindres, S.

PY - 2021/2

Y1 - 2021/2

N2 - Pipelines are the most profitable mode of transportation for hydrocarbons. Typically, oil and gas pipelines are made of low carbon steel, whose mechanical properties change due to aging. The changes in mechanical properties can be estimated using an artificial aging process. The mechanical properties studied in this paper (yield strength, ultimate tensile strength, and hardness), have random behavior that can be represented by a generalized extreme value distribution, showing considerable changes in variance and skewness at different aging times. Taking advantage of this feature and considering these changes in the mechanical properties can significantly affect the accuracy of calculated pipeline probability of failure estimation.

AB - Pipelines are the most profitable mode of transportation for hydrocarbons. Typically, oil and gas pipelines are made of low carbon steel, whose mechanical properties change due to aging. The changes in mechanical properties can be estimated using an artificial aging process. The mechanical properties studied in this paper (yield strength, ultimate tensile strength, and hardness), have random behavior that can be represented by a generalized extreme value distribution, showing considerable changes in variance and skewness at different aging times. Taking advantage of this feature and considering these changes in the mechanical properties can significantly affect the accuracy of calculated pipeline probability of failure estimation.

KW - Artificial aging

KW - Burst pressure models

KW - Failure pressure

KW - Pipeline steel

KW - Probability of failure

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DO - 10.1016/j.engfailanal.2020.104950

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VL - 120

JO - Engineering Failure Analysis

JF - Engineering Failure Analysis

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Influence of aging steel on pipeline burst pressure prediction and its impact on failure probability estimation

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Keywords

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