Future scenarios for tropical montane and south temperate forest biodiversity in Latin America

This chapter presents results of a scenario-building exercise, designed to explore future trends in forest biodiversity in four forest areas, and the potential implications for policy development and implementation. An expert consultation conducted in a workshop environment identified 11 principal pressures responsible for biodiversity loss in Latin America, namely land-cover change, fire, invasive species, browsing animals, pollution, mining, development of infrastructure (roads, pipelines, dams), logging/fuelwood extraction, habitat fragmentation, climate change and loss of keystone species and ecological structures. The relative importance of these different pressures was assessed in each of four study areas, namely Central Veracruz (Mexico), the Highlands of Chiapas (Mexico), Rio Maule-Cobquecura (Region VII, Chile) and Los Muermos-Ancud (Region X, Chile). Scores were generated for each area describing both variation in intensity of the pressures over time and their potential impacts on different components of biodiversity. The scoring process was used to support development of three scenario narratives for each area, namely business as usual, deepening conservation crisis and effective conservation. Recommendations for policy development and implementation are presented for each study area, based on these scenarios. The results indicate that action on global commitments to reduce biodiversity loss must take account of the geographical variation in the relative importance of different pressures and their varying impacts on different biodiversity components. Policy developments and practical conservation action will need to be tailored for individual areas, defined at the sub-national level.