Economic competitiveness of small modular reactors versus coal and combined cycle plants

Small modular reactors (SMRs) may be an option to cover the electricity needs of isolated regions, distributed generation grids and countries with small electrical grids. Previous analyses show that the overnight capital cost for SMRs is between 4500 US$/kW and 5350 US$/kW, which is between a 6% and a 26% higher than the average cost of a current large nuclear reactor. This study analyzes the economic competitiveness of small modular reactors against thermal plants using coal and natural gas combined cycle plants. To assess the economic competitiveness of SMRs, three overnight capital costs are considered 4500 US$/kW, 5000 US$/kW and 5350 US$/kW along with three discount rates for each overnight cost considered, these are 3, 7, and 10%. To compare with natural gas combined cycle (CC) units, four different gas prices are considered, these are 4.74 US$/GJ (5 US$/mmBTU), 9.48 US$/GJ (10 US$/mmBTU), 14.22 US$/GJ (15 US$/mmBTU), and 18.96 US$/GJ (20 US$/mmBTU). To compare against coal, two different coal prices are considered 80 and 120 US$/ton of coal. The carbon tax considered, for both CC and coal, is 30 US$/ton CO₂. The results show what scenarios make SMRs competitive against coal and/or combined cycle plants. In addition, because the price of electricity is a key component to guarantee the feasibility of a new project, this analysis calculates the price of electricity for the economically viable deployment of SMRs in all the above scenarios. In particular, this study shows that a minimum price of electricity of 175 US$/MWh is needed to guarantee the feasibility of a new SMR, if its overnight capital cost is 5350 US$/kWe and the discount rate is 10%. Another result is that when the price of electricity is around 100 US$/MWh then the discount rate must be around 7% or less to provide appropriate financial conditions to make SMRs economically feasible.