Trend analysis and historical and recent return periods of erosivity indicators in the state of Sinaloa, Mexico

There are many agricultural regions in the world that have historically and recently documented irregular precipitation during the twentieth century; the effects of these variations in moisture are observed in different soil types. The goal of this study was to analyze the trend and return periods (RP), historical and recent, of soil erosivity indicators in Sinaloa. Daily precipitation data were obtained for the periods identified as recent and historical, i.e., 1963–2000 and 1982–2014, respectively. Subsequently, the average annual accumulated precipitation (AAAP), the trends of average precipitation concentration index (APCI), average modified Fournier index (AMFI), and average total erosivity index (ATEI) were calculated. With Gumbel method, the return periods were calculated. The historical and recent average of APCI and ATEI showed a highly seasonal distribution with medium to high erosivity, which accelerates the process of soil degradation. The negative trends in AAAP, APCI, AMFI, and ATEI can be attributed to the occurrence of −PDO, −ONI, and −TSM Pacific Ocean phase anomalies, which generate La Niña events. The RP for the historical period indicated greater erosivities after 2025. The RP for the recent period show that APCI and ATEI will intensify from 2019 on, and AAAP and AMFI will intensify from 2039. This is an unprecedented study that provides knowledge that can contribute to maintaining Sinaloa as the leading agricultural state in Mexico.