TY - JOUR
T1 - Tephra fallout hazard assessment for a Plinian eruption scenario at Volcán de Colima (Mexico)
AU - Bonasia, R.
AU - Capra, L.
AU - Costa, A.
AU - Macedonio, G.
AU - Saucedo, R.
N1 - Funding Information:
The authors would like to thank Arnau Folch and Roberto Sulpizio for constructive reviews of this manuscript. NCEP-Reanalysis 2 data were provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/ . R. Peluso is also acknowledged for his helpful computer support. We are grateful to V.C. Smith for correcting the English. This work was mainly supported by the CONACYT Project no. 99486 (Lucia Capra).
PY - 2011/6/1
Y1 - 2011/6/1
N2 - Volcanic ash fallout associated with renewal of explosive activity at Colima, represents a serious threat to the surrounding urbanized area. Here we assess the tephra fallout hazard associated with a Plinian eruption scenario. The eruptive history of Volcán de Colima shows that Plinian eruptions occur approximately every 100. years and the last eruption, the 1913, represents the largest historic eruption of this volcano. We used the last eruption as a reference to discuss volcanic hazard and risk scenarios connected with ash fallout. Tephra fallout deposits are modeled using HAZMAP, a model based on a semi-analytical solution of the advection-diffusion-sedimentation equation for volcanic particles. Based on a statistical study of wind profiles at Colima region, we first reconstructed ash loading maps and then computed ground load probability maps for different seasons. The obtained results show that a Plinian eruptive scenario at Volcán de Colima, could seriously damage more than 10 small towns and ranches, and potentially affect big cities located at tens of kilometers from the eruptive center. The probability maps obtained are aimed to give support to the risk mitigation strategies.
AB - Volcanic ash fallout associated with renewal of explosive activity at Colima, represents a serious threat to the surrounding urbanized area. Here we assess the tephra fallout hazard associated with a Plinian eruption scenario. The eruptive history of Volcán de Colima shows that Plinian eruptions occur approximately every 100. years and the last eruption, the 1913, represents the largest historic eruption of this volcano. We used the last eruption as a reference to discuss volcanic hazard and risk scenarios connected with ash fallout. Tephra fallout deposits are modeled using HAZMAP, a model based on a semi-analytical solution of the advection-diffusion-sedimentation equation for volcanic particles. Based on a statistical study of wind profiles at Colima region, we first reconstructed ash loading maps and then computed ground load probability maps for different seasons. The obtained results show that a Plinian eruptive scenario at Volcán de Colima, could seriously damage more than 10 small towns and ranches, and potentially affect big cities located at tens of kilometers from the eruptive center. The probability maps obtained are aimed to give support to the risk mitigation strategies.
KW - 1913 Colima eruption
KW - Hazard assessment
KW - Hazmap
KW - Plinian eruption
KW - Volcanic tephra fallout
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=79957544379&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2011.03.006
DO - 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2011.03.006
M3 - Artículo
SN - 0377-0273
VL - 203
SP - 12
EP - 22
JO - Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research
JF - Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research
IS - 1-2
ER -