TY - JOUR
T1 - Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis under incomplete data and imperfect source characterization
T2 - the Gulf of Mexico case study
AU - Alamilla, Jorge L.
AU - Vai, Rossana
AU - Esteva, Luis
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. part of Springer Nature.
PY - 2021/4
Y1 - 2021/4
N2 - A fully probabilistic formulation is proposed to quantify seismic hazard rates in regions where seismic monitoring has been defective, and as a consequence the catalogue is incomplete in a wide range of magnitudes. Catalogue incompleteness is always accompanied by an imperfect seismic source characterization, the wider the region the more defective its description. To overcome these issues, the approach presented herein is associated with three probabilistic assumptions: (1) the total seismicity of the region is figured out from the incomplete seismic catalogue; (2) the probability that the next seismic event might occur in a specific part of the region is quantified from the spatial distribution of recorded earthquakes; (3) schemes 2 and 3 are naturally incorporated in the classical probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and the seismic hazard curve is computed. The approach is applied to the Gulf of Mexico. It is shown that the Gulf of Mexico should not be considered as a homogeneous seismic source, since non uniform spatial distribution of recorded earthquakes significantly impacts on seismic hazard estimates.
AB - A fully probabilistic formulation is proposed to quantify seismic hazard rates in regions where seismic monitoring has been defective, and as a consequence the catalogue is incomplete in a wide range of magnitudes. Catalogue incompleteness is always accompanied by an imperfect seismic source characterization, the wider the region the more defective its description. To overcome these issues, the approach presented herein is associated with three probabilistic assumptions: (1) the total seismicity of the region is figured out from the incomplete seismic catalogue; (2) the probability that the next seismic event might occur in a specific part of the region is quantified from the spatial distribution of recorded earthquakes; (3) schemes 2 and 3 are naturally incorporated in the classical probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and the seismic hazard curve is computed. The approach is applied to the Gulf of Mexico. It is shown that the Gulf of Mexico should not be considered as a homogeneous seismic source, since non uniform spatial distribution of recorded earthquakes significantly impacts on seismic hazard estimates.
KW - Catalogue completeness
KW - Gulf of Mexico
KW - Seismic hazard
KW - Source characterization
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85103168601&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/s10950-021-09992-1
DO - 10.1007/s10950-021-09992-1
M3 - Artículo
AN - SCOPUS:85103168601
SN - 1383-4649
VL - 25
SP - 487
EP - 498
JO - Journal of Seismology
JF - Journal of Seismology
IS - 2
ER -