Potential distribution model of Pinaceae species under climate change scenarios in Michoacán

Michoacán is the fifth state with the greatest diversity of plant species, excelling due to its richness in families, genera and species of flowering trees in Mexico. Therefore, in this paper the potential distribution of 12 species of Pinaceae was evaluated in current conditions and future climate change scenarios through ecological niche models. Data on the current climate, future scenarios, soil properties and digital elevation model were used as environmental predictors. The modeling was done using the Maxent software. 75 % of the data on the species presence was used for the training of the models and the remaining 25 % for model validation. The output grids were classified into three categories of area for the species distribution: unsuitable, marginal and suitable. The models show that there will be a 16 to 40 % decrease in suitable areas in the 2015-2039 and 2075-2099 periods, respectively. The species most affected by the decrease in their distribution will be Abies religiosa, Pinus leiophylla and Pinus teocote.