Evolution of southern Mexican Pacific coastline: Responses to meteo-oceanographic and physiographic conditions

The coast of Oaxaca, along the southern Mexican Pacific coastline, is home to diverse ecosystems, which undergoes significant erosion and accretion due to natural and anthropogenic influences. This study aims in analysing the historical shoreline variations and predicting the future changes for better coastal management plans. In order to study the long-term variations in shoreline, Landsat time-series satellite imageries between 1973 and 2020 were evaluated. Overall, the results indicate that the coast is highly dominated by accretion (74%) process, with the most significant changes occurring at the estuarine areas and beaches. Linear Regression Rate (LRR) and Weighted Linear Regression (WLR) methods showed mean variations at rates of 1.2±2.5 and 0.4±2.5 m/yr for the long-term period. The analysis of seven short-term periods (for every 5 years between 1986–2020) identified the maximum mean erosion of −20.6 m during 2005–2010 and accretion of 18.7 m during 2000–2005. However, the forecasted rate of change for the period 2030 and 2040 using End Point Rate (EPR) statistics revealed that the northern region would continue to move seaward at a rate of +0.26 m/yr and the coastline of southern region would move landward at a possible rate of −0.45 m/yr. The natural factors such as rainfall, river discharge, hurricane, and wave dynamics are the main drivers of shoreline changes along the estuarine and wetland areas. Contrarily, the anthropogenic factors such as breakwaters and urbanization are responsible for coastline dynamics along the beaches and ports. Henceforth, the estuarine region, lagoon openings, and tourist beaches require utmost attention as the sediment flow in these regions are not monitored constantly.