Analysis of omissions of protected fish species during environmental impact assessments inferred with distribution models in southeastern coastal zone of Bahía de La Paz, Mexico

Protected species are relevant for decision-making regarding environmental authorization of development projects. In Mexico, prior to authorizing a development project, it is required to evaluate potential impacts through an environmental impact statement (EIS); this EIS must document the presence or absence of the protected species listed in the NOM-059-SEMARNAT-2010 standard within the project area and its surroundings (influence zone). However, in situ detection of some faunal groups similar to protected fish species (PFS) can be complex due to mobility and dynamics, difficulty of sampling, and lack of literature. Consequently, PFS could be inadvertently omitted during environmental impact assessments and this could strongly influence decision-makers related to approving the development site. To address this issue, we used our extensive history and experience of the region to document potential omissions of PFS in projects evaluated from 2005 to 2018 in the Bahía de La Paz. Omissions were inferred by cross-checking the declaration in the EIS and comparing impact areas of the projects with the PFS distribution areas predicted from ecological niche models. The results revealed, on average, that 74% of EIS examined did not declare PFS in the zone where the models indicated their potential presence. This unprecedented study has innovative implications for improving future decision-making and protection of regulated protected species and their habitats both in the bay and elsewhere in the marine and coastal environment.