TY - GEN
T1 - Vote buying detection via independent component analysis
AU - Neme, Antonio
AU - Neme, Omar
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© Springer International Publishing AG 2016.
PY - 2016
Y1 - 2016
N2 - Electoral fraud can be committed along several stages. Different tools have been applied to detect the existence of such undesired actions. One particular undesired activity is that of vote-buying. It can be thought of as an economical influence of a candidate over voters that in other circumstances could have decided to vote for a different candidate, or not to vote at all. Instead, under this influence, some citizens cast their votes for the suspicious candidate. We propose in this contribution that intelligent data analysis tools can be of help in the identification of this undesired behavior. We think of the results obtained in the affected ballots as a mixture of two signals. The first signal is the number of votes for the suspicious candidate, which includes his/her actual supporters and the voters affected by an economic influence. The second mixed signal is the number of citizens that did not vote, which is affected also by the bribes or economic incentives. These assumptions allows us to apply an instance of blind source separation, independent component analysis, in order to reconstruct the original signals, namely, the actual number of voters the candidate may have had and the actual number of no voters. As a case of study we applied the proposed methodology to the case of presidential elections in Mexico in 2012, obtained by analyzing public data. Our results are consistent with the findings of inconsistencies through other electoral forensic means.
AB - Electoral fraud can be committed along several stages. Different tools have been applied to detect the existence of such undesired actions. One particular undesired activity is that of vote-buying. It can be thought of as an economical influence of a candidate over voters that in other circumstances could have decided to vote for a different candidate, or not to vote at all. Instead, under this influence, some citizens cast their votes for the suspicious candidate. We propose in this contribution that intelligent data analysis tools can be of help in the identification of this undesired behavior. We think of the results obtained in the affected ballots as a mixture of two signals. The first signal is the number of votes for the suspicious candidate, which includes his/her actual supporters and the voters affected by an economic influence. The second mixed signal is the number of citizens that did not vote, which is affected also by the bribes or economic incentives. These assumptions allows us to apply an instance of blind source separation, independent component analysis, in order to reconstruct the original signals, namely, the actual number of voters the candidate may have had and the actual number of no voters. As a case of study we applied the proposed methodology to the case of presidential elections in Mexico in 2012, obtained by analyzing public data. Our results are consistent with the findings of inconsistencies through other electoral forensic means.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84990050117&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/978-3-319-46349-020
DO - 10.1007/978-3-319-46349-020
M3 - Contribución a la conferencia
SN - 9783319463483
T3 - Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics)
SP - 226
EP - 236
BT - Advances in Intelligent Data Analysis - 15th International Symposium, IDA 2016, Proceedings
A2 - Boström, Henrik
A2 - Papapetrou, Panagiotis
A2 - Knobbe, Arno
A2 - Soares, Carlos
PB - Springer Verlag
T2 - 15th International Symposium on Advances in Intelligent Data Analysis, IDA 2016
Y2 - 13 October 2016 through 15 October 2016
ER -