TY - JOUR
T1 - The integration of undergraduate students’ informal and formal inferential reasoning
AU - Gómez-Blancarte, Ana Luisa
AU - Tobías-Lara, María Guadalupe
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V.
PY - 2023/6
Y1 - 2023/6
N2 - Since statistical inference is a probabilistic generalization about a population analyzed on the basis of a sample, inferential reasoning demands producing reasons (statistical and contextual) to substantiate and validate generalizations. To convey an understanding of students’ inferential reasoning, we present a proposal—based on Toulmin’s argumentation model—in which the production of statistical and contextual reasons serve as fundamental components of students’ inferential reasoning by providing supporting arguments that can be expressed as a sequence of statements. We analyze the inferential reasoning of university students asked to work in teams on an inferential activity in the context of environmental pollution. Results show that they integrated informal and formal methods to produce statistical reasons, complemented by contextual reasons to support their conclusions. Their reasoning model allowed us to identify (a) a potential transition from informal to formal inferential reasoning; and (b) ambiguity, or an absence of expressions of uncertainty, about generalizations regarding the population, possibly related to their confidence in using formal methods (e.g., hypothesis testing). We conclude that our proposal helps encourage and analyze students’ inferential reasoning. Future research will require clearer definitions of the characteristics of the argumentation model in the field of statistical inferential reasoning because arguments depend on their disciplinary context.
AB - Since statistical inference is a probabilistic generalization about a population analyzed on the basis of a sample, inferential reasoning demands producing reasons (statistical and contextual) to substantiate and validate generalizations. To convey an understanding of students’ inferential reasoning, we present a proposal—based on Toulmin’s argumentation model—in which the production of statistical and contextual reasons serve as fundamental components of students’ inferential reasoning by providing supporting arguments that can be expressed as a sequence of statements. We analyze the inferential reasoning of university students asked to work in teams on an inferential activity in the context of environmental pollution. Results show that they integrated informal and formal methods to produce statistical reasons, complemented by contextual reasons to support their conclusions. Their reasoning model allowed us to identify (a) a potential transition from informal to formal inferential reasoning; and (b) ambiguity, or an absence of expressions of uncertainty, about generalizations regarding the population, possibly related to their confidence in using formal methods (e.g., hypothesis testing). We conclude that our proposal helps encourage and analyze students’ inferential reasoning. Future research will require clearer definitions of the characteristics of the argumentation model in the field of statistical inferential reasoning because arguments depend on their disciplinary context.
KW - Arguments
KW - Contextual reasons
KW - Higher education
KW - Informal and formal inferential reasoning
KW - Statistical reasons
KW - Train of reasoning
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85146395998&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/s10649-022-10205-w
DO - 10.1007/s10649-022-10205-w
M3 - Artículo
AN - SCOPUS:85146395998
SN - 0013-1954
VL - 113
SP - 251
EP - 269
JO - Educational Studies in Mathematics
JF - Educational Studies in Mathematics
IS - 2
ER -