TY - JOUR
T1 - Spatial patterns of ARIMA modeled rates of change of atherinids (Chirostoma spp.) and goodeid Chapalichthys encaustus from Lake Chapala, México
AU - Becerra-Muñoz, Salvador
AU - Buelna-Osben, Héctor René
AU - Catalán-Romero, Juan Manuel
N1 - Funding Information:
Lake Chapala fisheries research survey was supported through a grant IPN-CEGEPY 970468 from the Mexican National Polytechnic Institute.
PY - 2003/7/15
Y1 - 2003/7/15
N2 - We implemented the first systematic sampling fish survey from June 1997 to February of 1999 in Lake Chapala. Atherinid (Chirostoma spp.) and "pintilla" goodeid Chapalichthys encaustus mean densities ranged between 0.11-2.15 and 0.04-2.92 fish/m3, respectively. Atherinids reached maximum densities of 4.28 fish/m3 near Ajijic city and "pintilla" goodeids peaked at 12.28 fish/m3 near the municipal discharge of Jocotepec City. Shifts from atherinid dominant to "pintilla" goodeid dominant were detected in areas influenced by municipal discharges from Jocotepec, Ajijic, Chapala and Tizapán cities, and Lerma River inflow. Municipal discharges induced shifts in fish community structure by reducing the abundance of the more profitable atherinids to a level where less profitable goodeids increased in the fish community. Time series modeling of non-stationary atherinid and "pintilla" goodeid density and biomass series revealed two patterns of dynamics in Lake Chapala. We found density-independent Integrated Moving Average (IMA) models for atherinid rates of change in areas influenced by municipal discharges from Jocotepec, Ajijic, Chapala and Tizapán cities, and Lerma River inflow. MA parameters (θ1) indicated random-shock environmentally-driven time series dynamics. Density-dependent integrated autoregressive (ARI) models were found for atherinid rates of change at all other sampling stations. First-order ARI models found had φ1 parameters between -1 and 0, which indicated density-dependent quasi-cyclic dynamics through time. Variances explained by ARI models were higher at the western than at the eastern region of Lake Chapala. Rate of dampening of forecasted quasi-cycles for atherinids and pintilla goodeids was higher at the eastern than western region of Lake Chapala. Pollution effect on quasi-cyclic fish population patterns are analogous to overfishing in regards that pollution-induced mortality removes part of the fish stock, and consequently the effect of density-dependent compensatory mechanisms tend to diminish as pollution levels increase. Cyclic second-order ARI models were found near San Luis Soyatlán for atherinids and pintilla goodeids.
AB - We implemented the first systematic sampling fish survey from June 1997 to February of 1999 in Lake Chapala. Atherinid (Chirostoma spp.) and "pintilla" goodeid Chapalichthys encaustus mean densities ranged between 0.11-2.15 and 0.04-2.92 fish/m3, respectively. Atherinids reached maximum densities of 4.28 fish/m3 near Ajijic city and "pintilla" goodeids peaked at 12.28 fish/m3 near the municipal discharge of Jocotepec City. Shifts from atherinid dominant to "pintilla" goodeid dominant were detected in areas influenced by municipal discharges from Jocotepec, Ajijic, Chapala and Tizapán cities, and Lerma River inflow. Municipal discharges induced shifts in fish community structure by reducing the abundance of the more profitable atherinids to a level where less profitable goodeids increased in the fish community. Time series modeling of non-stationary atherinid and "pintilla" goodeid density and biomass series revealed two patterns of dynamics in Lake Chapala. We found density-independent Integrated Moving Average (IMA) models for atherinid rates of change in areas influenced by municipal discharges from Jocotepec, Ajijic, Chapala and Tizapán cities, and Lerma River inflow. MA parameters (θ1) indicated random-shock environmentally-driven time series dynamics. Density-dependent integrated autoregressive (ARI) models were found for atherinid rates of change at all other sampling stations. First-order ARI models found had φ1 parameters between -1 and 0, which indicated density-dependent quasi-cyclic dynamics through time. Variances explained by ARI models were higher at the western than at the eastern region of Lake Chapala. Rate of dampening of forecasted quasi-cycles for atherinids and pintilla goodeids was higher at the eastern than western region of Lake Chapala. Pollution effect on quasi-cyclic fish population patterns are analogous to overfishing in regards that pollution-induced mortality removes part of the fish stock, and consequently the effect of density-dependent compensatory mechanisms tend to diminish as pollution levels increase. Cyclic second-order ARI models were found near San Luis Soyatlán for atherinids and pintilla goodeids.
KW - ARIMA time series models
KW - Atherinidae
KW - Chapalichthys encaustus
KW - Chirostoma spp.
KW - Fish community structure
KW - Goodeidae
KW - Lake Chapala
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=0037785158&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/S0304-3800(03)00073-5
DO - 10.1016/S0304-3800(03)00073-5
M3 - Artículo
SN - 0304-3800
VL - 165
SP - 237
EP - 250
JO - Ecological Modelling
JF - Ecological Modelling
IS - 2-3
ER -