Potential distribution model of Pinaceae species under climate change scenarios in Michoacán

Gustavo Cruz-Cárdenas, Lauro López-Mata, José T. Silva, Nelly Bernal-Santana, Francisco Estrada-Godoy, José A. López-Sandoval

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

5 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Michoacán is the fifth state with the greatest diversity of plant species, excelling due to its richness in families, genera and species of flowering trees in Mexico. Therefore, in this paper the potential distribution of 12 species of Pinaceae was evaluated in current conditions and future climate change scenarios through ecological niche models. Data on the current climate, future scenarios, soil properties and digital elevation model were used as environmental predictors. The modeling was done using the Maxent software. 75 % of the data on the species presence was used for the training of the models and the remaining 25 % for model validation. The output grids were classified into three categories of area for the species distribution: unsuitable, marginal and suitable. The models show that there will be a 16 to 40 % decrease in suitable areas in the 2015-2039 and 2075-2099 periods, respectively. The species most affected by the decrease in their distribution will be Abies religiosa, Pinus leiophylla and Pinus teocote.
Original languageAmerican English
Pages (from-to)135-148
Number of pages14
JournalRevista Chapingo, Serie Ciencias Forestales y del Ambiente
DOIs
StatePublished - 1 May 2016

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Pinaceae
climate change
Abies religiosa
Pinus
digital elevation models
model validation
soil properties
niches
biogeography
Mexico
flowering
digital elevation model
soil property
climate
distribution
software
modeling

Cite this

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title = "Potential distribution model of Pinaceae species under climate change scenarios in Michoac{\'a}n",
abstract = "Michoac{\'a}n is the fifth state with the greatest diversity of plant species, excelling due to its richness in families, genera and species of flowering trees in Mexico. Therefore, in this paper the potential distribution of 12 species of Pinaceae was evaluated in current conditions and future climate change scenarios through ecological niche models. Data on the current climate, future scenarios, soil properties and digital elevation model were used as environmental predictors. The modeling was done using the Maxent software. 75 {\%} of the data on the species presence was used for the training of the models and the remaining 25 {\%} for model validation. The output grids were classified into three categories of area for the species distribution: unsuitable, marginal and suitable. The models show that there will be a 16 to 40 {\%} decrease in suitable areas in the 2015-2039 and 2075-2099 periods, respectively. The species most affected by the decrease in their distribution will be Abies religiosa, Pinus leiophylla and Pinus teocote.",
author = "Gustavo Cruz-C{\'a}rdenas and Lauro L{\'o}pez-Mata and Silva, {Jos{\'e} T.} and Nelly Bernal-Santana and Francisco Estrada-Godoy and L{\'o}pez-Sandoval, {Jos{\'e} A.}",
year = "2016",
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doi = "10.5154/r.rchscfa.2015.06.027",
language = "American English",
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journal = "Revista Chapingo, Serie Ciencias Forestales y del Ambiente",
issn = "2007-3828",
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Potential distribution model of Pinaceae species under climate change scenarios in Michoacán. / Cruz-Cárdenas, Gustavo; López-Mata, Lauro; Silva, José T.; Bernal-Santana, Nelly; Estrada-Godoy, Francisco; López-Sandoval, José A.

In: Revista Chapingo, Serie Ciencias Forestales y del Ambiente, 01.05.2016, p. 135-148.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Potential distribution model of Pinaceae species under climate change scenarios in Michoacán

AU - Cruz-Cárdenas, Gustavo

AU - López-Mata, Lauro

AU - Silva, José T.

AU - Bernal-Santana, Nelly

AU - Estrada-Godoy, Francisco

AU - López-Sandoval, José A.

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AB - Michoacán is the fifth state with the greatest diversity of plant species, excelling due to its richness in families, genera and species of flowering trees in Mexico. Therefore, in this paper the potential distribution of 12 species of Pinaceae was evaluated in current conditions and future climate change scenarios through ecological niche models. Data on the current climate, future scenarios, soil properties and digital elevation model were used as environmental predictors. The modeling was done using the Maxent software. 75 % of the data on the species presence was used for the training of the models and the remaining 25 % for model validation. The output grids were classified into three categories of area for the species distribution: unsuitable, marginal and suitable. The models show that there will be a 16 to 40 % decrease in suitable areas in the 2015-2039 and 2075-2099 periods, respectively. The species most affected by the decrease in their distribution will be Abies religiosa, Pinus leiophylla and Pinus teocote.

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