Possible future scenarios for atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases: A simplified thermodynamic approach

Most of the increase in concentrations of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere is mainly due to anthropogenic activities. This is particularly significant in the case of CO₂. The atmospheric concentration of CO₂ has systematically increased since the Industrial Revolution (260 ppm), with a remarkable raise after the 1970s until the present day (380 ppm). If this increasing tendency is maintained, the last report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that, for the year 2100, the CO₂ concentration can augment up to approximately 675 ppm. In this work it is assumed that the quantity of anthropogenic greenhouse gases emitted to the Earth's atmosphere is proportional to the quantity of heat rejected to the environment by internal combustion heat engines. It is also assumed that this increasing tendency of CO₂ due to men's activity stems from a mode of energy production mainly based on a maximum-power output paradigm. With these hypotheses, a thermoeconomic optimization of a thermal engine model under two regimes of performance: the maximum-power regime and the so-called ecological function criterion is presented. This last regime consists in maximizing a function that represents a good compromise between high power output and low entropy production. It is showed that, under maximum ecological conditions, the emissions of thermal energy to the environment are reduced approximately up to 50%. Thus working under this mode of performance the slope of the curves of CO₂ concentration, for instance, drastically diminishes. A simple qualitative criterion to design ecological taxes is also suggested.