Feasibility of a new fishery in Baja California, Mexico based on the red crab Pleuroncodes planipes: Preliminary economic evaluation and risk assessment

A preliminary economic evaluation of the feasibility of establishing a fishery to process red crab meal (Pleuroncodes planipes) was conducted. Risk assessment indicated that a fishery of nine boats could operate with an average 1.53 benefit-cost ratio (B C^-1) and annual net revenues (NR) of US$427 840, and that there is certainty of obtaining economic profit in every season, with a BC^-1 > 1 and NR > 0. Total catch and average catch per trip could be reduced from a total baseline catch of 10 328 tons (1735 t meal) to 6061 (1844 t meal), and from a baseline catch per trip of 11.4 t (4.78 t meal) to 6.73 tons (4.85 t meal) without economic losses. There was no possibility for profit when total catch and average catch per trip were, respectively, lower than 5365 t (1648 t meal) and 5.96 t (4.71 t meal). For a single-fishing trip operation, average B C^-1 was 1.5 and NR was US$480. We determined that there was a confidence level of 84% to generate profits. To guarantee profits, a catch of 13.5 t per trip (1.35 t meal) should be obtained. Single trips catching less than 3.3 t (0.94 t meal) cannot make a profit. Sensitivity analysis indicated that plant processing efficiency for converting fresh red crab to meal, catch per trip, and sales price of red crab meal were most important in determining B C^-1 and NR values. Plant efficiency constitutes the main element that needs to be optimized, particularly management practices to preserve fresh catch quality. A low sensitivity to costs for processing suggests the possibility of negotiating a higher price and the opportunity for processing plants to venture into processing of red crab meal.