Erosion of lizard diversity by climate change and altered thermal niches

Barry Sinervo; Fausto Méndez-de-la-Cruz; Donald B. Miles; Benoit Heulin; Elizabeth Bastiaans; Maricela Villagrán Santa Cruz; Rafael Lara-Resendiz; Norberto Martínez-Méndez; Martha Lucía Calderón-Espinosa; Rubi Nelsi Meza-Lázaro; Héctor Gadsden; Luciano Javier Avila; Mariana Morando; Ignacio J. De La Riva; Pedro Victoriano Sepúlveda; Carlos Frederico Duarte Rocha; Nora Ibargüengoytía; César Aguilar Puntriano; Manuel Massot; Virginie Lepetz; Tuula A. Oksanen; David G. Chappie; Aaron M. Bauer; William R. Branch; Jean Clobert; Jack W. Sites

doi:10.1126/science.1184695

Erosion of lizard diversity by climate change and altered thermal niches

Barry Sinervo, Fausto Méndez-de-la-Cruz, Donald B. Miles, Benoit Heulin, Elizabeth Bastiaans, Maricela Villagrán Santa Cruz, Rafael Lara-Resendiz, Norberto Martínez-Méndez, Martha Lucía Calderón-Espinosa, Rubi Nelsi Meza-Lázaro, Héctor Gadsden, Luciano Javier Avila, Mariana Morando, Ignacio J. De La Riva, Pedro Victoriano Sepúlveda, Carlos Frederico Duarte Rocha, Nora Ibargüengoytía, César Aguilar Puntriano, Manuel Massot, Virginie LepetzTuula A. Oksanen, David G. Chappie, Aaron M. Bauer, William R. Branch, Jean Clobert, Jack W. Sites

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

1402 Scopus citations

Abstract

It is predicted that climate change will cause species extinctions and distributional shifts in coming decades, but data to validate these predictions are relatively scarce. Here, we compare recent and historical surveys for 48 Mexican lizard species at 200 sites. Since 1975, 12% of local populations have gone extinct. We verified physiological models of extinction risk with observed local extinctions and extended projections worldwide. Since 1975, we estimate that 4% of local populations have gone extinct worldwide, but by 2080 local extinctions are projected to reach 39% worldwide, and species extinctions may reach 20%. Global extinction projections were validated with local extinctions observed from 1975 to 2009 for regional biotas on four other continents, suggesting that lizards have already crossed a threshold for extinctions caused by climate change.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	894-899
Number of pages	6
Journal	Science
Volume	328
Issue number	5980
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1184695
State	Published - 14 May 2010
Externally published	Yes

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Sinervo, B., Méndez-de-la-Cruz, F., Miles, D. B., Heulin, B., Bastiaans, E., Cruz, M. V. S., Lara-Resendiz, R., Martínez-Méndez, N., Calderón-Espinosa, M. L., Meza-Lázaro, R. N., Gadsden, H., Avila, L. J., Morando, M., De La Riva, I. J., Sepúlveda, P. V., Rocha, C. F. D., Ibargüengoytía, N., Puntriano, C. A., Massot, M., ... Sites, J. W. (2010). Erosion of lizard diversity by climate change and altered thermal niches. Science, 328(5980), 894-899. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1184695

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title = "Erosion of lizard diversity by climate change and altered thermal niches",

abstract = "It is predicted that climate change will cause species extinctions and distributional shifts in coming decades, but data to validate these predictions are relatively scarce. Here, we compare recent and historical surveys for 48 Mexican lizard species at 200 sites. Since 1975, 12% of local populations have gone extinct. We verified physiological models of extinction risk with observed local extinctions and extended projections worldwide. Since 1975, we estimate that 4% of local populations have gone extinct worldwide, but by 2080 local extinctions are projected to reach 39% worldwide, and species extinctions may reach 20%. Global extinction projections were validated with local extinctions observed from 1975 to 2009 for regional biotas on four other continents, suggesting that lizards have already crossed a threshold for extinctions caused by climate change.",

author = "Barry Sinervo and Fausto M{\'e}ndez-de-la-Cruz and Miles, {Donald B.} and Benoit Heulin and Elizabeth Bastiaans and Cruz, {Maricela Villagr{\'a}n Santa} and Rafael Lara-Resendiz and Norberto Mart{\'i}nez-M{\'e}ndez and Calder{\'o}n-Espinosa, {Martha Luc{\'i}a} and Meza-L{\'a}zaro, {Rubi Nelsi} and H{\'e}ctor Gadsden and Avila, {Luciano Javier} and Mariana Morando and {De La Riva}, {Ignacio J.} and Sep{\'u}lveda, {Pedro Victoriano} and Rocha, {Carlos Frederico Duarte} and Nora Ibarg{\"u}engoyt{\'i}a and Puntriano, {C{\'e}sar Aguilar} and Manuel Massot and Virginie Lepetz and Oksanen, {Tuula A.} and Chappie, {David G.} and Bauer, {Aaron M.} and Branch, {William R.} and Jean Clobert and Sites, {Jack W.}",

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Sinervo, B, Méndez-de-la-Cruz, F, Miles, DB, Heulin, B, Bastiaans, E, Cruz, MVS, Lara-Resendiz, R, Martínez-Méndez, N, Calderón-Espinosa, ML, Meza-Lázaro, RN, Gadsden, H, Avila, LJ, Morando, M, De La Riva, IJ, Sepúlveda, PV, Rocha, CFD, Ibargüengoytía, N, Puntriano, CA, Massot, M, Lepetz, V, Oksanen, TA, Chappie, DG, Bauer, AM, Branch, WR, Clobert, J & Sites, JW 2010, 'Erosion of lizard diversity by climate change and altered thermal niches', Science, vol. 328, no. 5980, pp. 894-899. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1184695

TY - JOUR

T1 - Erosion of lizard diversity by climate change and altered thermal niches

AU - Sinervo, Barry

AU - Méndez-de-la-Cruz, Fausto

AU - Miles, Donald B.

AU - Heulin, Benoit

AU - Bastiaans, Elizabeth

AU - Cruz, Maricela Villagrán Santa

AU - Lara-Resendiz, Rafael

AU - Martínez-Méndez, Norberto

AU - Calderón-Espinosa, Martha Lucía

AU - Meza-Lázaro, Rubi Nelsi

AU - Gadsden, Héctor

AU - Avila, Luciano Javier

AU - Morando, Mariana

AU - De La Riva, Ignacio J.

AU - Sepúlveda, Pedro Victoriano

AU - Rocha, Carlos Frederico Duarte

AU - Ibargüengoytía, Nora

AU - Puntriano, César Aguilar

AU - Massot, Manuel

AU - Lepetz, Virginie

AU - Oksanen, Tuula A.

AU - Chappie, David G.

AU - Bauer, Aaron M.

AU - Branch, William R.

AU - Clobert, Jean

AU - Sites, Jack W.

PY - 2010/5/14

Y1 - 2010/5/14

N2 - It is predicted that climate change will cause species extinctions and distributional shifts in coming decades, but data to validate these predictions are relatively scarce. Here, we compare recent and historical surveys for 48 Mexican lizard species at 200 sites. Since 1975, 12% of local populations have gone extinct. We verified physiological models of extinction risk with observed local extinctions and extended projections worldwide. Since 1975, we estimate that 4% of local populations have gone extinct worldwide, but by 2080 local extinctions are projected to reach 39% worldwide, and species extinctions may reach 20%. Global extinction projections were validated with local extinctions observed from 1975 to 2009 for regional biotas on four other continents, suggesting that lizards have already crossed a threshold for extinctions caused by climate change.

AB - It is predicted that climate change will cause species extinctions and distributional shifts in coming decades, but data to validate these predictions are relatively scarce. Here, we compare recent and historical surveys for 48 Mexican lizard species at 200 sites. Since 1975, 12% of local populations have gone extinct. We verified physiological models of extinction risk with observed local extinctions and extended projections worldwide. Since 1975, we estimate that 4% of local populations have gone extinct worldwide, but by 2080 local extinctions are projected to reach 39% worldwide, and species extinctions may reach 20%. Global extinction projections were validated with local extinctions observed from 1975 to 2009 for regional biotas on four other continents, suggesting that lizards have already crossed a threshold for extinctions caused by climate change.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=77952336226&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1126/science.1184695

DO - 10.1126/science.1184695

M3 - Artículo

SN - 0036-8075

VL - 328

SP - 894

EP - 899

JO - Science

JF - Science

IS - 5980

ER -

Erosion of lizard diversity by climate change and altered thermal niches

Abstract

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